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“We are facing a last wave, a kind of ‘exit wave’, which will mainly affect the unvaccinated”

“We are facing a last wave, a kind of ‘exit wave’, which will mainly affect the unvaccinated”
“We are facing a last wave, a kind of ‘exit wave’, which will mainly affect the unvaccinated”

Is the health crisis finally coming to an end? According to several experts, the omnipresence of the delta variant, combined with the lifting of a certain number of health measures and the resumption of the majority of school and professional activities in person, raise fears of a new wave.

For Tom Wenseleers, biostatistician at KULeuven, there is nothing to be alarmed about: the worst is behind us. “From a global point of view, we are currently on a plateau in terms of the number of deaths. And this curve will soon start to go down”, predicts the Flemish expert in the columns of the daily The morning.

Are the new variants a threat?

Could the recent discovery of new variants, such as the Colombian strain “Mu”, classified as “potentially worrying” by the WHO and the European Medicines Agency (EMA), complicate a return to normal?

“I have good news about Mu,” reassures Tom Wenseleers. “According to my calculations, it has a growth capacity of 6 to 7% per day compared to the Delta variant. We therefore do not need to worry about this”, explains the expert, who nevertheless recognizes that ‘it will be necessary to follow the new South African variant C1.2: “The evolution of this variant is a little less clear. This strain is the most distant from the original version of Wuhan. But it also seems incapable of supplanting the Delta variant. “.

“I have no proof for the moment that there is a variant in circulation which is more infectious or which has a growth capacity greater than the Delta variant”, continues the biostatistician. “I think we are in the middle of the last great global wave. A kind of ‘exit wave’, which will take place mainly among the unvaccinated.”

“The nightmare would be to see the appearance of a variant capable of completely bypassing vaccine immunity. But there is absolutely no indication today that this could happen in the near future”, concludes the expert, resolutely optimistic.

 
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