INFOGRAPHICS. Covid-19: the circulation of the virus has stopped decreasing in France, should we be worried?

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It is now a reality: the number of new cases of Covid-19 is no longer decreasing in France. In some French departments, there is even talk of epidemiological recovery. France thus sees the beginnings of a fifth wave. Should we be worried?

While France is turning the page on the fourth wave of Covid-19, is the fifth showing the end of its nose? The French government is at the very least vigilant in the face of what looks like an epidemic resumption: For several days, “there has been a stagnation, even a small increase in the number of contaminations”, noted Wednesday the Minister of Health Olivier Véran.

Indeed, in the figures after months of decline, the famine: for the first time since the middle of August, the average number of new contaminations is on the rise again. Over the past week, France recorded an average of 4,656 new cases of Covid-19 each day: this is 10.7% more than four days ago.

“4,000 patients per day, we know how to manage”, wanted to reassure the Minister of Health. The country could very soon, however, return above the bar of 5,000 new daily cases.

A very differentiated epidemic recovery

The health situation invites the authorities to change gear, and to opt for a territorialized logic. Because the epidemic recovery is not the same according to the departments and regions of the country. Thus, the Bouches-du-Rhône are still worrying as much: it is the only French department where my incidence rate passes the bar of 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

In Occitania, two departments are worrying: it is Lozère, where the incidence rate peaks at 93 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Aveyron has also passed the alert threshold with more than 53 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. However, if the incidence rates remain particularly low for the time being compared to what France had experienced during previous epidemic waves, it is the evolution of these incidence rates that in recent days that frightens.

In France, the epidemiological recovery is characterized in 57 departments. In these areas, the incidence rate started to rise again. In Aveyron precisely, the incidence rate has doubled in the space of just one week. In the Gers, it climbed by nearly 53%, also in the space of seven days.

Will we have to “live with the virus”?

If the government affirms that it “expected” this epidemic resumption, it will especially be necessary to see if this one will have a growing impact in the health establishments of the country. Because to repel the virus, France has no other weapons than the vaccine. It is somewhat the bitter observation that has been made on the other side of the Channel: in the United Kingdom, despite the vaccination, the cases of Covid-19 are very numerous. Hospitalizations linked to the virus remain limited, however: “We have chosen a balance between reopening and hospital pressure, which we can stick to,” said David Frost, the British Minister for Europe, this week.

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Covid-19: why is the epidemic soaring in the United Kingdom?

The United Kingdom is learning to “live with the virus”, with more than 40,000 new cases per day, and nearly 100 to 150 deaths recorded in the country. If Covid-19 patients are far from being as numerous as in previous waves, caregivers complain of additional hospital pressure. 700 infected patients enter British hospitals every day.

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Covid-19 vaccine: why a third dose will be necessary

For the moment, in France, hospitalizations and admissions in intensive care continue to decrease.

According to the latest figures from Public Health France, 6,470 people are currently hospitalized due to Covid-19 and 1,051 patients are still in intensive care. It remains to be seen until when.

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