the thrills of the start of an epidemic recovery

the thrills of the start of an epidemic recovery
the thrills of the start of an epidemic recovery

The deputies adopted last Wednesday, with one vote, the possibility of using the health pass until July 2022, even though the Covid-19 surveillance indicators are on the rise again, after almost two months of decline keep on going.

At the national level, the incidence rate, which makes it possible to scrutinize the circulation of the virus, crossed the famous alert threshold of 50 cases per 10,000 inhabitants at the end of last week. At the regional level, the trend is the same. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, it has increased by 8% over the past week. At the same time, the screening rate drops by 7% when the positivity rate increases by 0.2 point.

Haute-Loire has the worst incidence rate of metropolitan departments

In our departments, the improvement continues only in the Jura. The incidence rate continued to decline there (to 28) after the small outbreak at the end of September.

If the Loire and the Ain remain below the alert threshold (respectively 40 and 47), there is a quivering with a rise of around 10 points for ten days. During the same period of time, in the Rhône, the incidence rate dropped below the 50 mark to cross it again almost immediately. Since then, he has done a little yoyo without ever going back beyond 54. We can talk more about stabilization than growth.

It is in Haute-Loire that an explosion in the incidence rate takes place. It has increased by 200% since October 1, going from 30 to almost 90 at the end of last week. The Alti-Loire department now has the worst incidence rate in mainland France (only Martinique and Guyana are ahead), even before Bouches-du-Rhône where the situation had been quite tense for weeks.

No real impact for the time being in the hospital

The decline in the number of hospitalizations, which has been observed since the end of August, is still continuing overall, but at low speed. If the Rhône is the 10th department taking on the most patients for Covid-19, it has 17 fewer patients in a week. At the other end of the spectrum, the Jura is the 9th least impacted department with now seven people hospitalized (-4).

While the figures remain stable in Ain, they are down in Haute-Loire despite the explosion in the incidence rate and the cluster detected at the Emile-Roux hospital in Puy-en-Velay. In reality, hospitalizations rather increased from the second week of October, at the same time as the incidence rate started to get carried away, but tended to decline when this rate really exploded. Will it be the same in the next two weeks (lag usually observed between an increase in the incidence rate and that of hospitalizations)?

Unless there is a porosity between Haute-Loire and Loire which could explain, in part at least, the increase in hospitalizations (+8 in one week) in a department which has not experienced at the same time a significant increase in virus circulation.

In critical care, the decline continued nationally until a small rise on Sunday. At the regional level, the picture is less uniform even if the general trend is towards a plateau, slightly downward or upward depending on the department.

With 39 patients in intensive care, the decline, which began at the end of August, continues in the Rhône (-5 in one week). It remains, however, the 5th department taking the most care of patients in critical care. He was still in 3rd position two weeks ago when he had just fallen below the threshold of 50 hospitalized patients. By way of comparison, there are still 121 in the Bouches-du-Rhône, the most affected department.

Ain is the only other department not to see its number of patients in critical care increase (-1). There are four more in the Loire and three more in the Haute-Loire and the Jura, which has not happened since the beginning of September. And, as in these last two departments there was only one patient in critical care 8 days ago, this represents an increase of 300%, an impressive figure, but which does not make much sense.

Mortality remains low

Twelve people died from Covid-19 during the past week in hospitals in our five departments. The Rhône, the 4th most bereaved department since the start of the pandemic, totals two-thirds (+8). Two other deaths occurred in Haute-Loire when the Loire and Ain recorded one.

On the other hand, no Covid-19 patient has died in the Jura for more than three weeks.

Vaccination begins to level off

In the five departments, vaccination (complete scheme) increased by 0.2% in one week, all ages combined. With a cruising speed no higher than its neighbors, the Ain therefore does not fill the slightest delay, week after week. And the vaccination rate there is 12 to 17 points lower.

The boost came last week from 12-17 year-olds (+ 2.2%) in Haute-Loire, thus passing the bar of 70% of vaccinated in this age group (Jura, Loire and Rhône , had already crossed it). Haute-Loire which already has the highest vaccine rates among 18-24 year olds (96.5%) with the Jura (98.1%).

It is among 25-29 year olds that the Rhône is far ahead: 98.5% when the other departments are at best 13 points behind (Loire) and at worst 21 (Ain).

While the executive pointed out the insufficient number of vaccinated among those over 80, there was a small upturn in this category (+ 0.2%). At the same time, vaccination is hardly progressing in the 70-79 age group, already massively double bitten.

While the implementation of the health pass and then the recent end of free testing for unvaccinated people aimed, in particular, to increase the vaccination rate even further, the epidemic control strategy now seems to be more oriented. towards the 3rd dose.

The campaign is well launched for the over 65s and the frail. Stéphane Paul, head of the immunology department of the Saint-Etienne University Hospital and member of the national scientific committee on Covid-19 vaccines, believes that this recall will have to be extended to over 50s.

Along with the vaccination card, maintaining barrier gestures and wearing a mask, which are increasingly “forgotten”, is a sine qua non for a calmer winter than last year.

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